Metro Phoenix Real Estate Appreciation Trends
After the very exciting Phoenix real estate
markets we've had the last few years, I find
myself answering the same questions over and
over:
* What is the market doing?
* What do I think the market is going to do?
* Where are prices stagnant, falling or increasing?
* What's the best place to invest in Phoenix
real estate these days?
So, in an attempt at a systematic approach
to answering these and other lingering questions
from my clients, friends and acquaintances,
I have decided to prepare a report and write
this article. It is by no means a set of fixed
rules the reader must follow, but rather a
few guidance points that will hopefully enlighten
the reader's view of the current real estate
market as well as his/her real estate investment
career.
I will begin by giving the reader just some
raw numbers that will hopefully help putting
the rest of the analysis into perspective.
During 2006, there were 61,055 single-family-home
re-sales. The average sale price throughout
the year was $362,093. There was very little
change throughout the year, starting at $369,000
in January and ending at $359,000 in December.
This should come as no surprise, since we
knew 2006 was going to be a correction year.
The rest of the analysis divided the whole
Phoenix Metro are by zip codes and the main
findings are summarized below:
* For an average sale price of $300K and under,
Phoenix, Youngtown and Sun City topped the
list of appreciating zip codes in the following
order:
Zip Code City/Town % Appreciation 85020 Phoenix
38% 85021 Phoenix 24% 85363 Youngtown 16%
85009 Phoenix 15% 85373 Sun City 13% 85008
Phoenix 12% 85013 Phoenix 12% 85033 Phoenix
11% 85035 Phoenix 10%
I advise you to not start jumping up and down
and putting all your money in these zip codes,
however. A month-by-month analysis showed
a lot of saw-tooth (peaks and valleys) behavior.
You can find a more detailed chart on my full
report. However, the numbers do show a steadier
upward swing in sales price for these zip
codes.
* For those interested in sale price of between
$300K and $500K, Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale,
Glendale, Surprise and Avondale made my list
of highest-appreciating zip codes in the following
order:
Zip Code City/Town % Appreciation 85042 Phoenix
22% 85205 Mesa 14% 85251 Scottsdale 12% 85310
Glendale 11% 85379 Surprise 10% 85257 Scottsdale
9% 85323 Avondale 9%
Again, the saw-tooth pattern was observed
at this price range, but distinct upward trends
can be appreciated.
* Finally, for an average sale price of between
$500K and $750K, Scottsdale, Goodyear, Queen
Creek and Gilbert made it here in the order
below:
Zip Code City/Town % Appreciation 85259 Scottsdale
15% 85338 Goodyear 7% 85242 Queen Creek 6%
85254 Scottsdale 6% 85296 Gilbert 5%
As in the previous price points, a lot of
saw-tooth behavior going on here. Appreciating
trends can still be observed, but they are
less marked.
So, what is the data telling you as an owner
or potential buyer of single-family homes
in the Phoenix area?
1. The first thing it is telling us should
be no surprise to people who have been following
our real estate market: 2006 was a period
of transition and adjustments. The "saw-tooth"
pattern observed is a dead giveaway.
However, where there opportunities and appreciating
markets?
YES, THERE WERE! And THERE STILL ARE!
2. A big thing these numbers are telling us
is that the bottom did NOT fall off. Even
with the oscillations, average prices remained
strong, either hovering around the same value
at which they started or inching upward a
bit.
And remember: these are average numbers. Each
investor or buyer's particular style/approach
will produce different results. This is only
a guideline to which you may want to refer
to get an idea of how our market is behaving,
how our Valley is growing and where.
To get your FREE copy of the detailed report
I wrote for my clients, complete with tables,
charts and my own personal pick of where the
growth is and will be for the next few years,
please visit <http://www.ValleDelSolRealEstate.com>.
